We present the latest report “Industrial Market in Poland Q1-Q3 2024,” developed by experts from AXI IMMO, the largest commercial real estate consultancy in Poland.

Estimated reading time: 6 minutes

Stability and Growth of the Warehouse Market in Poland in 2024

The Polish industrial and logistics market demonstrated resilience in the first three quarters of 2024. During this period, 2.1M sq m of new warehouse space was delivered, expanding the sector’s total stock to nearly 34M sq m (+9% Y/Y). Currently, 1.9M  sq m are under construction (-22% Y/Y), marking the second-lowest development activity since early 2018. Despite challenges, leasing activity remained stable at 3.8M sq m, with a vacancy rate of 8.0% (+30 bps Y/Y) at the end of September 2024.

Investment Sector: Decline in Transaction Value and Revival in Q3

In the investment market, the total transaction volume for the industrial sector reached €738 million (-12% Y/Y), accounting for 27% of the overall investment volume in Poland. However, the third quarter saw a significant improvement, with transactions totaling €445 million, representing a 46% share of the total volume. This resurgence was fueled by the return of portfolio transactions, such as the acquisition of three Diamond Parks by U.S. investor Greykite from AIG/White Star and the purchase of a 65% stake in DL Invest by Emira Property Fund. 

Grzegorz Chmielak, Head of Valuation and Capital Markets, AXI IMMO, commented:

“In recent months, the Polish commercial real estate investment sector has shown signs of stabilization and recovery. The warehouse segment, in particular, has regained momentum after a challenging start to the year. Increasing investor interest in industrial and logistics portfolios is evident in the growing number of ongoing transactions. Fully leased warehouse assets in established core markets remain the most attractive”. 

Warehouse Supply and Development Activity

At the end of September 2024, Poland’s modern industrial stock reached 34 million sq m (+9% Y/Y). Development activity in the first three quarters totaled 2.1 million sq m (-33% Y/Y), with 454,000 sq m delivered in Q3 alone. The largest volumes of new space were completed in the Dolnośląskie, Mazowieckie, and Łódzkie regions. Currently, 1.9 million sq m are under construction (-22% Y/Y), the second-lowest level since 2018. The volume of new project starts also decreased significantly, with 1.2 million sq m initiated from Q1 to Q3 2024 (-49% Y/Y). By region, the most active areas in terms of new developments were Dolnośląskie (571,000 sq m), Mazowieckie (331,000 sq m), and Śląskie (295,000 sq m). Developer activity on smaller markets has declined. 

Vacancy Rates: Stability in the Leasing Market

As of September 2024, the industrial market’s vacancy rate remained stable at 8.0% (-30 bps Q/Q, +20 bps Y/Y). The highest availability of space was recorded in the Lubuskie, Świętokrzyskie, and Lubelskie regions, at 20%, 16.1%, and 12.9%, respectively. Among the “Big Five” markets, Łódzkie had the highest vacancy rate at 11.2%, equating to 539,000 sq m of available space. The average vacancy rate for the five largest markets stood at 7.9%, aligning closely with the national average. 

Anna Głowacz, Head of Industrial, AXI IMMO, stated:

“The Polish industrial market is entering a phase of stabilization, characterized by reduced development activity and a greater focus on tenant-tailored projects. Supply is adjusting to actual tenant demand, fostering more sustainable growth. While leasing volumes remain high, renegotiations account for a significant portion of transactions”. 

Increased Need for Warehouse Space

Gross take-up for production and logistics space in Poland totaled 3.8 million sq m in Q1-Q3 2024 (+2.5% Y/Y). The leasing structure was dominated by new deals and expansions, comprising 61% of all transactions. The highest demand for industrial space during this period was recorded in Mazowieckie, Dolnośląskie, and Łódzkie. Major lease transactions in Q3 2024 included: 

  1. CTPark Warsaw West (Wiskitki): 63,000 sq m, Retail (new deal);
  2. Prologis Park Łódź: 41,500 sq m, Electronics & white goods (new deal)
  3. GLP Poznań Airport Logistics Centre: 28,800 sq m, FMCG (renewal) 

Stable Prices with an Upward Trend

Base rental rates remained stable with a slight upward trend in new and planned developments, ranging from EUR 3.7 to EUR 5.5/sq m/month for big-box facilities. The lowest rates are observed in locations with repeatedly re-leased assets. Effective rental rates are approximately 20% lower than base rates due to vacancy levels and long-term lease negotiations. 

Outlook for the Polish Industrial Market

Renata Osiecka, Managing Partner, AXI IMMO, concluded:

“Despite declining development activity and challenging macroeconomic conditions, the Polish industrial and logistics market in 2024 demonstrates stability. Investors and tenants continue to recognize the potential in key regions such as Warsaw, Łódź, Upper Silesia, and Lower Silesia, maintaining stable rental rates and offering prospects for further market growth. We anticipate strong tenant activity in Q4, traditionally the best-performing quarter of the year”. 

About AXI IMMO 

AXI IMMO offers comprehensive advisory services related to commercial real estate, including warehouse and office leasing and property management, real estate valuation, land acquisition, and sales. The firm also offers B2B and B2C supply chain management services. AXI IMMO’s greatest advantage is combining international business standards with deep local market knowledge.

AXI IMMO has received numerous awards, including Best Local Agency of the Year in 2012 – 2019 and 2021 in the CiJ Awards and the award for Best Team in the warehouse sector in 2016 – 2017. In 2019 and 2023, the firm was the winner in the Local Agency category, and in 2024 it was named Advisor of the Year at the CEE Investment Awards. AXI IMMO was named Local Agent of the Year in 2023 and 2024 in the CEE region at the CEEQA awards. The firm’s most recent achievement is the title of Advisor of the Year in the Prime Property Prize 2024.